Ghana: Q1 2014 GDP

NOMINAL GDP (NGDP)

The level of nominal income was slightly lower than the previous quarter's. This might be a seasonal effect as Q1 NGDP is often lower than Q4 NGDP.

Annual growth, however, rebounded after declining for a couple of quarters. Q1 '14 growth was 24.8%; Q4 '13 was 11.4%.

REAL GDP (RGDP)

Seasonally adjusted RGDP (RGDP-SA) has seen decent increases in the last two quarters.

The quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) RGDP growth rate (seasonally adjusted, annualized) was 10.6%, 11.2% in Q4 2013. The year-over-year rate was 6.7% versus 4.9% in Q4 2013.

GDP Deflator

GDP deflator inflation (QoQ, annualized) rose sharply during the quarter. The year-over-year increase was much lower.

I calculated the deflator index by dividing nominal gdp for a particular quarter by real gdp for the same quarter and then multiplied the result by 100 -- QtNGDP/QtRGDP x 100 = GDP deflator. Ghana Statistical Service derives the overall GDP deflator by taking the average of the sector GDP deflators.

SECTOR GROWTH -- RGDP

Agricultural output grew, quarter over quarter, at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (saar) of 15.4%, down from 20.7% in Q4 2013. Year over year, output grew by 12.7% versus 3.4% in Q4 2013.

Industrial output increased 7.9% (saar), after falling by -5% in Q4 2013. Year over year, industrial output fell by -1.1%, which is a bit better than the fall of -1.6% in Q4 2013.

Services fell by -7.1% (saar). It grew by 8.6% in the fourth quarter. Year over year, it grew 4.6%, a decline from the fourth quarter's 7.2%.

SECTOR GROWTH -- NGDP

Nominal income in the agriculture sector grew at an annual rate of 17.4%, slightly lower than the fourth quarter's rate of 19.8%.

Nominal income in the industry sector grew at an annual rate of 27.3%, an increase from 13.9% in the fourth quarter.

Services nominal income was up by 22.4%, much better than the 2.6% it grew at in Q4 2013.

BOTTOM LINE

Growth in the first quarter was respectable.

It is noteworthy that after falling sharply in the last two quarters of 2013, output in the industry sector grew quarter over quarter, an encouraging sign. The year-over-year growth rate improved marginally but was still negative.

The services sector bears watching. Growth in that sector may be trending downward. Services makes up about 50% of the economy. Declining growth in services will restrain the growth of the economy